MESSAGE: (a)-TROPICAL STORM ERIKA – ERIKA IS DUMPING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS HISPANIOLA … BUT THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT ERIKA COULD EVEN DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHILE IT IS MOVING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.
THE SITUATION: (a)-TROPICAL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CAN POSSIBLY BE EXPERIENCED IN THOSE ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
AT 8:00 PM EDT, THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 72.0 DEGREES WEST ABOUT 196 MILES SOUTH OF GRAND TURK,.
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MILES PER HOUR. A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND TOMORROW WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH SUNDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF ERIKA WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN HAITI AND THE GULF OF GONAVE EARLY SATURDAY, AND WILL BE NEAR THE EXTREME EASTERN CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 45 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT ERIKA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHIE IT IS MOVING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE MODERATE TO SEVERE FLOODING THROUGHOUT THESE ISLANDS, PARTICULARLY LOW-LYING AREAS.
RESIDENTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MAKE FINAL PREPARARTIONS TO SECURE THEIR PROPERTIES FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT, WHILE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS IN THE WATCH AND ALERT AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
THE NEXT ALERT WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 MIDNIGHT EDT.
RISK/ IMAPCT IMPLICATIONS FOR THE TCI: (b): (see below)
Providenciales, PVN is expected to receive a minimal impact from Tropical Storm Erika.
Easterly gale force winds should start affecting the area on Saturday, August 29th at 3 AM EDT. The highest wind speeds from Tropical Storm Erika should occur near 4 AM EDT when top sustained winds, from the East, could reach 35 knots with gusts near 42 knots. Winds should decrease below gale force shortly thereafter.
Sustained winds will fall below gale force after 6 AM EDT and generally be from the Southeast during this period of decreasing winds. Expect gusts above gale force level for several more hours thereafter.
Some minor residential wind damage may occur from Tropical Storm Erika in Providenciales.
Grand Turk Is., GDT is expected to receive a minimal impact from Tropical Storm Erika.
The highest wind speeds from Tropical Storm Erika should occur near 12 AM EDT when top sustained winds, from the East, could reach 34 knots with gusts near 41 knots. Winds should decrease below gale force shortly thereafter.
No real wind damage should occur from Tropical Storm Erika in Grand Turk Is.
NATIONAL ACTIONS:
- NEOC/ECO is partially activated from 6:00pm to Friday 28th August 2015
- If necessary DDME will be opening shelters today at 6:00pm 28th August 2015, throughout the TCI:
3 in Providenciales, - All Saints Mission Church, Enid Capron School, Osetta Jolly, Pmary School
2 in North Caicos – Kew Community Center and the Adelaide Oemler, Primary School
2 in Middle Caicos – Conch Bar Community Center and Bambarra Community Center
1 in Grand Turk – Green Door
2 in Salt Cay – Methodist Church Hall (North District) and the Community Center/ Club
House (South District)
1 in South Caicos - Community Center, Sarah Hill, South Caicos
- All Government Offices will closed at 12:00pm today Friday 28th August 2015 until Monday 31st August 2015 at 8:00am
- TCIAA is advising airports in the Turks and Caicos Islands will be closed from 6:00pm today Friday 28th August, 2015 until Sunday 30th August 2015 at 12:00 Noon
- Health Sub Committee has met and are on standby for deployment
- Communication Sub Committee has met and are on standby
- Damage Assessment Teams (DAT) have met and are on standby for deployment
Disclaimer: The Department of Disaster Management & Emergencies (DDME) is not an official Meteorological Office. The Information disseminated by the Department is gathered from a number of professional sources used or contracted by the DDME to provide such information. This information is to be used as a guide by anyone who has interest in local weather conditions. By no means can the DDME or the TCI Government be held accountable by anyone who uses this information appropriately for legal evidence or in justification of any decision which may result in the loss of finances, property or life.