My fellow Turks and Caicos Islands, in the face of the coronavirus pandemic, these are indeed uncertain times for us in the Turks and Caicos Islands and indeed our region and world. The past months has been nothing short of a period of world panic and frenzy and whilst I do not wish to dismiss the urgency or seriousness, I wish to offer words of calm in this period. Whilst there are much we do not know, there is much that we do know that can keep us safe. I want to reiterate that CO Vid 19 is not a death sentence and many are recovering.
In TCI, there are frantic calls from places of great emotion motivated by many different factors but I ask us all to see this matter for what it is: first it is a health led matter and a matter of grave national importance. Again I ask that we not color this pandemic, and as I have said already, to do so would be to do our people a disservice. I wish to state that I did reach out to the LOO with a commitment to continue to update and will do so even ahead of the NSC Advisory Group of which he is a part and called for on Wednesday.
Dashboard
Yesterday, we received the results from our first 5 suspected cases. Whilst, I was relieved and pleased, I did caution us to see it for what it is. We must not get complacent because of these results. As a people, we must take all the necessary precautions. And as a Government, we must remain vigilant in instituting policies and taking policied positions to not just mitigate risk but we must equally focus our attention on containment and control of spread.
Today’s Dashboard released at 12pm showed 0 suspected cases and 7 persons remain in quarantine. This situation is very fluid and can change by the hour. If there are major changes, the public will be updated.
I will throughout this Address seek to also address concerns that are trending among our population and I take this time to address the information on our Dashboard which will be released each day at midday.
Suspected and Quarantine cases have caused some confusion but it is not indigenous to TCI. Suspected cases are those cases by WHO standards where there are symptoms being exhibited similar to those of Co Vid 19. These persons meet the case definition to be tested. Those in Quarantine are those who may have had exposure but show no signs or symptoms. Be mindful that quarantine numbers will go up as we seek to take precautions. And again quarantine can be self - imposed or state imposed. The Ministry of Health this week will speak more to quarantine and the facilities identified.
I wish to also address the question of testing. I cannot do so without expressing profound thanks to CAPRHA’s LAB Team in Trinidad who remains available for use by TCI and who received our first samples. There are few Labs in the Region with PCR Testing capability and the closest to us are Bahamas and Jamaica. We have made arrangements with the Bahamas and are grateful for their swift sample testing over the weekend. The Bahamas has proven over and over to be a true friend to these Islands. The question is why do we not have testing capabilities at home? The short answer is we are working on it. As the MOH has stated multiple times – it requires capacity building in terms of the physical space as well as training of personnel. This remains work in progress and the country will be updated in due course. In the main time, we are pleased with the current arrangements and will continue to use and pursue the swiftest testing rate.
Economic Fall Out
My Government remains committed to the diversification of the economy but until we are able to move other critical sectors like financial services, technology, agriculture and fishing to the desired pace, like most of our region, our economies remain firmly tourism based for the foreseeable future.
The Effects of COVID on the Economy
My fellow Turks and Caicos Islanders, the fact that World Health Organization (WHO) has classified COVID -19 as a global pandemic has caused my government to consider the possible economic cost of the disease and its likely impact on the economy of the TCI.
The TCI is tourism dependent economy like many of our neighbours and Caribbean territories and we are closely monitoring the effects that the virus can have on our cruise ship arrivals and air travel numbers. This will impact our revenue receipts for fiscal year 2020/21 and my team in the Ministry of Finance will continue to monitor and adjust these figures accordingly.
Our forecast fiscal position at the end of March 2020, is that we will have approximately $200.0m in liquid cash. Of which, greater than $150.0m is unencumbered.
- $25.7m is in the National Wealth Fund
- $6.5m is in the National Forfeiture Fund
- Approximately $47m is committed for Capital Expenditure
- Approximately $120m will be free cash flow.
Average monthly expenditure is approximately $20m. Therefore, we will have approximately 232 days or 7.5 months of cash available.
The Ministry of Finance has completed a fiscal risk mitigation strategy matrix, specifically to address the inevitable fall-out in government receipts and the increased healthcare bill. My people, we have contingencies in place, to reduce the impact on each one of you.
Our risk management strategies will include:
- Utilization of the Contingency Fund for urgent and unforeseen expenditure
- National Wealth Fund
- Recurrent Expenditure controls,
- Reprioritization of the Capital Expenditure
- Use of withdrawal warrants
- Liquid Cash Reserves – arising from our cash flow position
The community is also being reminded that the TCI is in an enviable position with a very:
- Low debt portfolio – approximately $3m
- And a Sovereign Credit Rating of BBB+
We are aware there will likely be a shock in government expenditure, as we will have to spend more on strengthening our primary health care facilities to protect the population through increase screening at our airports and ports. We have already approved $410k from the Contingency Fund, to the Ministry of Health to assist with the purchase of personal protective equipment, drugs and pharmacueticals and to bolstering the public health team to monitor our ports of entry and to increase surveillance activities within the islands. The Estimates for 2020-21, also include allocation to enhance and sustain our response to reduce the impact of the Covid-19.
My people, my government is aware of the shock that the COVID-19 virus can have on our labour supply. If impacted, we will see a decrease in labour productivity levels or days lost if impacted by the virus as persons will have to absent from work. My government is working on measures that will be elaborated on in my upcoming budget address to assist those persons if affected.
The reduction in arrival numbers by air and sea will also affect many persons employed in the sector directly and indirectly and my government is assiduously working on plans to assist persons throughout the communities who will receive losses in income due to the reduction in tourism arrival numbers, as some hotels may opt to close temporarily at this time.
The coronavirus has the potential of having a serious impact on the workforce and productivity level in the Turks and Caicos Islands. Whether it is because of business closure or because of persons having to stay home because they are sick, or temporary lay-offs, days off from work may become a norm and my government is currently working on ways of mitigating against this and ensuring that our people do not suffer as a result of these circumstances that are beyond their control. There is no doubt that our economy will be put under tremendous stress, as we seek to find ways of surviving the onslaught of this crises. We have a number of our capital projects that are in the works which will be continuing and we will be putting additional measures in place which will help our people directly and will also help in keeping the TCI economy afloat. However, COVID-19 is a danger and remains a danger to economies around the world as it is affecting supply and demand chains globally. Even in the best-case scenarios a sharp slowdown in world growth is projected and global growth is expected to fall.
The Turks and Caicos Islands economy has been experiencing tremendous growth over the last few years and was forecasted to continue this growth pattern in 2020. Just to put everything into context, the overall real GDP growth for 2018 was 5.6 percent and growth for 2019 and 2020 was projected at 5.4 percent. While growth for 2021 was forecasted at 6.2 percent.
As a result of COVID-19 the Turks and Caicos Islands Government Statistical Unit now estimates that we will have to reduce the previous GDP growth forecast for 2020 due to a decline in overall economic activity which is in the region of anywhere from 2 percent and higher, due to the anticipated impact of the coronavirus. This forecasting of the impact on the economy is a challenging exercise as the Turks and Caicos Islands like many other countries in the region and the world do not know how bad a potential outbreak of the coronavirus in the Turks and Caicos Islands will be nor how long it will last for. It is true that in the Turks and Caicos Islands during last week and perhaps continuing into this week, there were and will be some form of panic buying of certain items, which helped in lifting consumer spending. However, this can be outweighed if there are cases in the Turks and Caicos Islands as persons would likely shop less and eat out less, etc.
Let us look at some possible scenarios. I must again remind us that NO one knows how long this crisis will last. Hence, any projection can only be made base on different scenarios which can change depending on different factors.
A 10 percent decline in the hotel and restaurant sector alone will lead to an almost 1 percent decline in overall real GDP. A 20 percent decline in the hotel and restaurant sector will result in 4.9 percent decline in overall real GDP. On the other hand we know that the sectors are interlinked. Hence, if there is a 10 percent decline in hotel and restaurants activity, 10 percent decline in wholesale and retail trade activity and a 10 percent decline in transport, storage and communication activity. This will lead to an overall decline of 2.5 percent in real GDP. If in this same scenario there is a 5 percent decline in construction and a 5 percent decline in real estate, dwelling, renting, computer and business services and a 10 percent decline in electricity real GDP will decline by 4.2 percent.
The possible reduction, and the possible recession that will follow, will affect private investment and our trade balances. However, my government through the Capital Programme will continue spending as this will act as a stimulus for our economy.
My government will continue to hold discussions with our stakeholders such as the shipping companies and Ports to ensure that there will be food on the islands. If impacted we recognize that there will also be a shock to consumption demand as preferences for certain activities will change. My people, my government is assuring you that our main priority is to keep you our people of these islands safe from the COVID-19 virus and if impacted containment will be the policy response of this government.
Team Finance has been meeting and looking at how we can address this possible economic fall out and what might we as a Government do to support businesses and individuals at this time.
The New Budget – Stimulus Included
The new Budget which will be laid momentarily will reflect my Ministry’s recommendations to Cabinet. We have created and included in this year’s Estimates a Stimulus Package and have set aside sums of money for support to those affected by the down turn. The policies around these monies are being crafted, but I can say that the monies are placed in the Ministry of Finance and the amounts will be announced once approved by Cabinet and laid on the Table of the House of Assembly.
Contingency Funds
Once the Budget passes as well, our Contingency Fund levels will be restored to just over $5m.
NIB
We should also note that the NIB investment portfolio will also experience loss due to the state of the Stock Market. We are expecting a full report and caution that this is a fluid situation. Nonetheless, we are hopeful that the Stock Market will bounce back.
Possible Support
I have also met with the Ministry of Immigration on worker’s compensation and benefits and we will be looking with a view to ensure that anyone quarantine will not be forced to use vacation and discussions are concluding generally regarding the sick leave benefit and the creation of a special leave.
Price Gouging and Panic Buying
The Government is aware that there are ongoing incidents of price gouging whereby a number of merchants have been increasing the price of certain products following the global outbreak of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) disease. For example, there has been a marked increase on the price of alcohol-based hand sanitizers which have been identified as a personal use item that is critical in the fight against the spread of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) disease.
The Coronavirus (Covid-19) disease has been declared by the World Health Organisation as a global pandemic. In response, my Government firmly believes that every citizen and resident of the Turks and Caicos Islands should be given every opportunity to give effect to the steps required to protect themselves against this disease. Therefore, my Government in consultation with the Ministry of Finance, Trade and Investment and its Department of Trade, Industry and Consumer Affairs, has begun making arrangements to see how best this can be addressed without influencing Supply and Demand. We will be looking at possible price ceilings and concessions on these items that the Ministry of Health deems necessary during this period of crisis. I wish to advise that there are powers afforded me under the recently enacted Consumer Protection Ordinance and I intend to use them where I am able.
In the main time, I will encourage merchants to read the Ordinance and to do the right thing by those who keep you in business.
Panic buying is being experienced across the World and I encourage persons to be wise in their spending.
Impact on Treatment Abroad
As Minister with responsibility for the NHIB, due to decisions taken by countries within our network for treatment abroad and the incidences of coronavirus in some of the referring countries, we are forced to revisit the Treatment Abroad Program and ask for your consideration as we reduce referrals overseas to only critical cases. This is for your protection. The NHIB will speak more to this officially following our Meeting today.
Important Meetings to be held
Team Finance will meet with critical sectors and agencies including air and sea port managers, shippers, large grocers, NIB, NHIB, tourism industry leaders first and then workers including the cruise sector’s businesses and workers on the Island of GT, small business owners and the Church.
Celebrate Team Health
This is a health led challenge and I remain grateful for the Hon Minister of Health and his Team who began the sensitization in this country as early as January. I must acknowledge the support of regional and international health bodies including CARPHA and PAHO, the UK Government through Public Health England and the Bahamas.
Executive Leadership
Political Leadership in this country is guided by health’s advice and we also recognise the legal mechanism, the Public and Environmental Health Board who have been working equally as hard in completing sound advice to Cabinet.
There has been a whole of Government approach and as leaders we have met this with the urgency warranted. I am pleased to say that as early as January, Cabinet heard from the Senior Leadership of the Health Team and have held several NSC Meetings and Special Cabinets over the past weeks.
Further Regulations
Last Saturday evening we met to consider important Regulations which have been translated into English and Spanish. These Regulations were the most far reaching in the Region at the time.
As a Cabinet, we met yesterday, Sunday afternoon to consider further Regulations. We considered recommendations before us under the following considerations; of paramount importance the health and protection of our citizens, the possible economic fall out and management of same, the duty of care to visitors and TCI Brand and finally the reputation of TCIG. I share with you the important decisions made:
Safeguarding of the Education Sector
Schools will close March 20th to April 20th. The Ministry of Education will advise further on this matter.
Restriction in travel and border protection
An expanded ban was considered and we are being guided by PEHB of countries to add to the list of infected countries.
All Cruise ships will be banned for a period of 30 days. As with all things, it is subject to review.
Protection for on Island and Inter Island Travelers
Another critical decision taken yesterday relates to all public transportation by land, air and sea are required to engage in safe practices with strict protocols on deep cleaning and sanitization. We again ask users of a community cab, the ferry, airplane, taxi to also take precautions.
Enhanced Screening
There will be further enhanced screening at the Ports.
Protection of facilities with Most Vulnerables
Non - essential visits to Institutions with the most vulnerable groups under our management and or sponsorship will cease for 30 days and this will include the Wellness Center, the Prison, Detention Center and Child Care Facilities.
Public Gatherings
Whilst we are instituting a public ban at this point, we are raising this as a matter of concern and wish for persons to consider as they plan and attend gatherings or participate in social groups.
On public gatherings our first priority is to public health. Government will lead the way on this cancelling all public gathering that we have responsibility for. Examples include as we have already done, the Inter Primary School Sports, Conferences and the weekly Fish Fry. We have taken the decision publicly in respect of Inter Primary Sports and commend those in the private sector who too have cancelled/postponed large sporting events.
Equally, we understand that a ‘gathering’ comes in many different forms: a restaurant, a church service, a funeral, travel through an airport terminal and so on. We don’t believe that one rule can fit all these circumstances and so we rely on those who have their own responsibilities to think carefully and clearly about the risks they are asking others to run. Social distance for example is one significant mitigation that might be used in restaurants. Pastors thinking carefully about how they arrange their Services would be another. We want our population engaged thinking and acting responsibly and for you as citizens take your own best interests into account. If you know you are susceptible to the virus: you are over 70, you have hypertension or diabetes it’s probably best you don’t choose to attend a function.
Churches and Funeral Directors will be provided with guidance as to how to manage crowds at Services and Funerals. I wish to note with thanks, the position taken by the Bishop Laish Boyd of the Anglican Diocese and I wish to share publicly some of the safe changes that were instituted at my place of worship
- Sanitizer was offered in the foyer before you enter the Sanctuary
- There was no hugging or handshaking, hence no greeting and fellowship song
- Seating arrangements were altered to every other bench where possible and persons were encouraged to sit a part
- The practice of the passing around of the offering plate has ceased and offering is brought to the front and collected there in a basket.
These measures help to mitigate risk and whilst it is a good example, it is not the panacea for all but care must be taken in all circumstances.
I add only that as we pray in faith for God’s intervention, we must equally give effect to the practical advice of medical personnel to whom God gives wisdom and works through.
Controversial Carnival Magic
It is important to note as well and I am pleased to share that the passengers of Carnival Magic that were airlifted from Grand Turk are stable and showed no signs of Co Vid 19. This experience revealed much but more importantly, it is important to highlight the strength exuded by Team Health in taking critical decisions for the protection of our citizens.
Health and Other Practical Advice
As I close, I turn briefly to the simple important health advice that we can follow to protect ourselves, our family and our country.
Whilst this pandemic changes our culture in major way: anti - social practices, it also brings us back to the important basics of cleanliness and good diets.
Two key points: Social Distancing and Strong Immune Systems
Social distancing
We do know that this virus is transmitted from human to human in droplet forms. It is therefore important to practice safe distances. So when a sick person sneezes or coughs, the virus can transmit to another human but it is not enough for an infected person to just sneeze or cough, another person must then with their hands transfer this virus into their body. It is transmitted through direct contact and through our mouth, eyes and nose. Hence we see the important helpful meme: avoid M.E.N. and you will be safe. It is important to avoid social gatherings and hugging and handshakes and touching. I recognize that this is tough and confusing for us as a social people but this is for your own good and those around you and TCI on the whole.
Build your immune system
Secondly what should be second nature for us though is the basics of proper handwashing. If we are unable to wash our hands, sanitisers with an alcohol base of at least 70% is an important temporary substitute. Watch surfaces and take care of those that we come into contact with, including the ever present cell phone.
Cease Non Essential Travel
I must reiterate my call to limit travel to only absolutely essential travel. The risk to you and our population is too great. I elected last week to not attend the Joint Ministerial Council Meetings in the UK and wish to advise that it was since cancelled.
All Ministers are fully engaged and equally grounded. We have made the decision not to
Students Overseas
I am aware that our Ministry had written to students overseas and advised that the advice would be kept under review. I am appealing to those of you to pay attention to the protocols in the country in which are currently, practice social distancing and proper hand washing and good hygienic practices. But I want you to also take note the borders closing all around you and ask only that you give serious and urgent consideration to returning home.
Conclusion
I want to say that you all of our decisions can make health workers jobs easier or more difficult.
Do not panic, take precautions.
Share only credible information. We have enacted the NEOC and have held our first Meeting today and are preparing as much as we are able to for impact. It is definitely best to be prepared even whilst we seek to mitigate.
Arm yourselves with facts.
The truth is many more are recovering. This is not a death sentence. Regrettably this is the flu season and symptoms are similar. I am asking you that if you feel sick, do not go to the Hospital, use the hotline numbers.
Announcement
Each Monday at 1pm as Premier, I will speak to you and on each Thursday beginning next week at 1pm, my Office will host a Facebook Live Event from the Premier’s Office where you can ask any Co Vid 19 related questions to the experts by typing in the comments column. I am again appealing to you again to share only credible information and to keep reliably and credibly informed.
National Day of Prayer
Following a Meeting with the Clergy, as Premier, I will call for a National Day of Prayer. It is important
